Demand-driven forecasting : a structured approach to by Charles W. Chase

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By Charles W. Chase

An in depth consultant at the strategy of enhancing enterprise forecasting This practitioner-focused ebook offers readers with actual, confirmed procedures, methodologies, and function metrics that may be utilized instantly with major development in forecast accuracy. full of real-life examples and case reviews to demonstrate either best-in-class ways in addition to preliminary start-up methods, it positive aspects insurance of themes together with myths as opposed to truth of forecasting, tips on how to practice a strategic worth overview, and cultural obstacles in forecasting. interested by the implementation and integration of revenues forecasting and advertising research, this ebook outlines a scientific strategy that may be a data-based, mathematically derived framework utilizing area wisdom to facilitate "what if" simulations for strategic/tactical making plans. Charles Chase (Cary, NC) is the enterprise Enablement supervisor for SAS production and provide Chain international perform

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As demand forecasters, it is our responsibility to validate unconstrained demand using sophisticated methods that can be used to provide practical recommendations to close gaps and minimize exposure to corporate game playing. Summary As a C-level manager, I have always served in a change management role as the champion of demand forecasting. Demystifying forecasting by educating senior management on its myths and realities has always been part of my job responsibilities. However, I was successful in creating change only when I relied on data and analytics to validate assumptions and provide a mechanism to develop strategies using simulation tools and applications.

Each month we held a consensus forecasting meeting led by the vice president (VP) of marketing. My team was responsible for creating the initial statistical baseline forecast that was the operations planning’s team input to the consensus forecasting process. Then sales and marketing would make adjustments to the statistical baseline forecast based on their plans and activities. Finance would also weigh in with its version of the demand forecast based on the financial plan. One E1C02_1 06/16/2009 35 integrating demand-driven forecasting 35 week prior to the monthly consensus forecasting meeting, each department would submit its version of the demand forecast to the financial controller, who captured each organization’s demand forecast assumptions and then created an average weighted consensus forecast.

When we were asked to accept a higher volume and revenue target, we showed them all the data and analysis. We continued to explain how we ran what-if simulations to determine what needed to be done to close the gap between our plan and the new corporate target. We asked for a $2 million incremental discretionary marketing spending fund to close the gap based on our analysis. The global corporate senior management team was so impressed that it lowered our annual volume and revenue target and gave us an additional $1 million in discretionary marketing spending to drive more demand.

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